Schroders on the ECB: The bar is rising for further hikes

10 September 2026

Commenting on today's interest rate decision from the European Central Bank, David Rees, Head of Global Economics at Schroders, said:

"Today's hike was expected, but the outlook from here is much less certain. Higher energy prices will keep headline inflation up, but core inflation remains well behaved so far. Domestic demand is softening, and higher energy costs alongside tighter financial conditions are likely to weigh on eurozone growth, particularly in 2027.

"Despite the hawkish tone of today's statement and forecasts, we believe the bar for further tightening is high. This looks more like a final hike than the start of a prolonged hiking cycle, so markets should not assume rates will move towards 3% unless growth and inflation re-accelerate materially."

David Rees
David Rees

Media contact

Wim Heirbaut

Press and media relations, BeFirm

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