Eurozone GDP dips as pandemic restrictions return

GDP beats expectations but there are growing risks around Europe’s vaccination programme.

Azad Zangana, Senior European Economist and Strategist, Schroders

02/02/2021 - Real GDP for the eurozone aggregate fell by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2020, largely due to the re-introduction of restrictions. Many member states were forced to close non-essential services, including retail, as the number of confirmed cases of the Covid-19 virus was surging once again.

The latest estimate beat consensus forecasts of a 1% contraction, but it leaves the level of GDP 5.1% below its pre-pandemic peak. For 2020 as a whole, GDP growth was -6.8% – the worst annual result since records began for the monetary union.

Within member states, there was a varied impact largely depending on the degree of restrictions imposed. Where restrictions were minimal such as Spain, the economy managed to avoid a contraction, growing by 0.4%. There was a similar story in Germany (+0.1%), Belgium (+0.2%) and Portugal (+0.4%), all eking out some growth.

In contrast, those forced to close retail outlets saw the most negative impact. France contracted by 1.3%, while Italy saw activity fall by 2%. Austria was the worst performer, as GDP contracted by 4.3%.

As these are preliminary estimates, the contributions to GDP are not yet available, but it is likely that household consumption was the key area of weakness, as we saw at the start of last year. Reduced confidence, uncertainty over work prospects and limited opportunities to spend will have hit retail trade.

Yet, as anticipated, restrictions at the end of 2020 were less severe than in the spring, leading to a less negative impact for the economy. Despite this, many economies have extended and even tightened restrictions into the new year, meaning that there is a chance of another negative quarter of GDP growth, and therefore a technical double-dip recession.

Slow vaccine roll-out risks return of restrictions next winter

Looking further ahead, hope returned in the form of vaccines, yet concerns remain over the sluggish progress made in vaccinating the population, and the apparent reluctance and scepticism towards the vaccines.

There is already a risk that most of Europe will not have sufficiently vaccinated its population in time for summer holidays, which will badly hit the tourism industry for southern member states.

There is also a growing danger that if herd immunity is not achieved in time, then restrictions could return in winter 2021/22. This would not only risk yet another recession, but also threaten the efficacy of Europe’s fiscal stimulus plans, and potentially once again call into question the sustainability of some countries’ public finances.

Azad Zangana

Contacts presse

Wim Heirbaut

Press and media relations, BeFirm

Tânia Jerónimo Cabral

Head of Marketing Schroders Benelux, Schroders

Share

Recevez des mises à jour par e-mail

En cliquant sur « S'abonner », je confirme avoir lu et accepté la Politique de confidentialité.

À propos de Schroders

À l’attention des rédacteurs

Pour consulter les derniers communiqués de presse de Schroders, rendez-vous sur : https://www.schroders.com/en/global/individual/media-centre/  

Schroders plc

Schroders est une société de gestion internationale qui propose des solutions de gestion active d’actifs, de gestion de patrimoine et d’investissement, avec 906,6 milliards d’euros d’actifs sous gestion au 30 juin 2025. En tant que société britannique cotée au FTSE100, Schroders possède une capitalisation boursière d’environ 6 milliards de livres sterling et emploie plus de 5 800 collaborateurs répartis sur 38 sites. Fondée en 1804, Schroders reste fidèle à ses racines d’entreprise familiale. La famille Schroder, qui détient environ 44 % du capital social émis, reste un actionnaire important.

Le succès de Schroders s’explique par son modèle économique diversifié, qui couvre différentes classes d’actifs, différents types de clients et différentes zones géographiques. La société propose des produits et des solutions innovants au travers de quatre divisions principales : Public Markets, Solutions, Wealth Management et Schroders Capital, qui se concentre sur les marchés privés, notamment le private equity, l’investissement dans les infrastructures renouvelables, la dette privée et les alternatives de crédit ainsi que l’immobilier.

Schroders vise à générer d'excellentes performances d'investissement pour ses clients par le biais d’une gestion active. Cela implique d’orienter les capitaux vers des entreprises résilientes dotées de modèles économiques durables, en accord avec les objectifs d’investissement de ses clients. Schroders sert une clientèle diversifiée qui comprend des régimes de retraite, des compagnies d'assurance, des fonds souverains, des fonds de dotation, des fondations, des particuliers fortunés, des family offices, ainsi que des clients finaux par le biais de partenariats avec des distributeurs, des conseillers financiers et des plateformes en ligne.

Publié par Schroder Investment Management Limited. Registration No 1893220 England.

Schroders est supervisée par la Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA), l'Autorité des services et marchés financiers en Belgique.

Pour des mises à jour régulières par courriel, veuillez vous inscrire en ligne sur www.schroders.com pour bénéficier des services d'alerte de Schroders.